Covid-19 Tracker

Note: The COVID Tracking Project stopped updating data on 7 March, 2021.

The idea here is to determine how many new COVID-19 cases are detected AFTER you account for the change in new test numbers. All else being equal, if you double your testing, you will double your positive cases. I consider those cases to be 'expected'. The difference--the cases that can't be explained by the change in number of tests--are the 'unexpected cases', which are plotted in red. Essentially, we are plotting the change in positivity rate versus a 14-day average and converting that into number of cases. Some notes:

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14-day average positivity rate: 23.5% (Two weeks ago: 28.4%)