Cinderella Index attempts to identify teams with the potential to make an unlikely run in the tournament (defined here as a trip to the Sweet 16). The table is ordered with teams that are underrated at the top, overrated at the bottom.

Seed Team Calc Seed Delta 16 Prob Trend CP
6Iowa St420.3860.360.80
5Auburn320.3720.260.76
11Saint Mary's650.1280.260.69
6Buffalo510.5320.130.54
3Purdue210.547-0.140.54
5Wisconsin410.500-0.060.50
12New Mexico St930.1480.280.48
7Louisville430.1530.180.48
10Florida730.1160.160.37
4Virginia Tech310.3690.020.37
12Oregon930.0980.290.33
6Maryland510.303-0.230.29
7Wofford610.2690.020.27
11Belmont920.112-0.070.22
7Nevada610.174-0.200.17
12Murray St1110.1090.080.11
11Ohio St1010.0920.090.10
9Central Florida810.107-0.370.09
14Yale1310.0580.240.07
12Liberty1200.0960.100.00
16Iona1600.0060.330.00
16Fairleigh Dickinson1600.0120.200.00
16Gardner Webb1600.0100.360.00
16North Dakota St1600.0060.220.00
15Abilene Christian1500.0310.160.00
15Montana1500.0210.280.00
15Colgate1500.031-0.010.00
15Bradley1500.0060.140.00
14Northern Kentucky1400.049-0.040.00
14Old Dominion1400.0450.050.00
13Northeastern1300.0490.220.00
13Vermont1300.0460.280.00
13California Irvine1300.0810.240.00
10Iowa1000.1310.190.00
1Duke100.7940.010.00
4Florida St400.6770.330.00
3Texas Tech300.343-0.010.00
2Kentucky200.5380.110.00
2Michigan200.6880.410.00
2Michigan St200.7870.090.00
8Utah St800.1030.240.00
1North Carolina100.8070.160.00
14Georgia St1400.0440.340.00
1Gonzaga100.765-0.260.00
1Virginia100.832-0.180.00
10Minnesota11-10.053-0.03-0.05
11Arizona St12-10.0750.07-0.08
13Saint Louis14-10.0690.50-0.09
9Baylor10-10.115-0.31-0.10
8Syracuse9-10.1080.10-0.11
9Oklahoma11-20.080-0.09-0.15
10Seton Hall11-10.1640.22-0.17
8VCU10-20.0910.04-0.19
7Cincinnati8-10.1960.13-0.20
9Washington12-30.084-0.16-0.23
6Villanova7-10.281-0.03-0.28
8Mississippi12-40.0780.01-0.31
4Kansas St5-10.3210.11-0.33
5Marquette8-30.1680.11-0.52
2Tennessee3-10.641-0.19-0.63
5Mississippi St7-20.4660.18-0.95
3Houston5-20.4780.01-0.96
4Kansas7-30.431-0.13-1.28
3LSU6-30.5280.11-1.60