Cinderella Index attempts to identify teams with the potential to make an unlikely run in the tournament. The table is ordered with teams that are underrated at the top, overrated at the bottom.

Seed Team Calc Seed Seed Delta Nom Wins Pred Wins Wins Above Expectation
1Gonzaga103.175.42+2.25
4Oklahoma St131.592.36+0.77
14Abilene Christian1040.160.63+0.47
8Loyola Chicago530.81.22+0.42
12Winthrop660.340.74+0.40
11Utah St1010.440.83+0.39
14Eastern Washington1400.160.55+0.39
7Connecticut340.951.32+0.37
11UCLA920.440.8+0.36
15Grand Canyon1230.080.42+0.34
14Colgate1310.160.5+0.34
7Oregon340.951.25+0.30
12UCSB1110.340.58+0.24
10Rutgers1000.550.79+0.24
9Wisconsin810.670.89+0.22
6Southern California511.131.33+0.20
13UNC Greensboro14-10.250.44+0.19
9St. Bonaventure720.670.84+0.17
13North Texas14-10.250.42+0.17
13Ohio15-20.250.41+0.16
2Houston3-12.382.5+0.12
3West Virginia4-11.922.04+0.12
16Drexel1510.010.12+0.11
5Villanova231.341.44+0.10
15Oral Roberts1500.080.18+0.10
12Georgetown13-10.340.44+0.10
8North Carolina710.80.89+0.09
12Oregon St13-10.340.43+0.09
16Hartford1600.010.09+0.08
11Drake13-20.440.52+0.08
10Virginia Tech12-20.550.63+0.08
6San Diego St601.131.19+0.06
9Missouri450.670.71+0.04
5Colorado411.341.38+0.04
11Syracuse920.440.47+0.03
15Cleveland St16-10.080.11+0.03
16Texas Southern1600.010.03+0.02
16Norfolk St1600.010.01+0.00
15Iona1500.080.07-0.01
2Ohio St112.382.36-0.02
14Morehead St1400.160.14-0.02
13Liberty1120.250.22-0.03
10VCU910.550.51-0.04
7Florida11-40.950.88-0.07
9Georgia Tech720.670.55-0.12
2Alabama202.382.26-0.12
10Maryland12-20.550.41-0.14
8LSU800.80.63-0.17
6Texas Tech9-31.130.93-0.20
5Creighton6-11.341.03-0.31
4Purdue5-11.591.24-0.35
6Brigham Young11-51.130.77-0.36
4Florida St6-21.591.22-0.37
5Tennessee8-31.340.91-0.43
7Clemson12-50.950.52-0.43
8Oklahoma10-20.80.35-0.45
1Michigan103.172.65-0.52
3Arkansas4-11.921.38-0.54
4Virginia8-41.591.04-0.55
3Texas5-21.921.27-0.65
3Kansas7-41.921.05-0.87
2Iowa202.381.45-0.93
1Illinois2-13.172.06-1.11
1Baylor3-23.172.01-1.16