Cinderella Watch ⓘ
The Cinderella Index identifies underdogs (seeds 9-16) most likely to pull upsets. Each team's predicted tournament wins (from the matchup probability model) are compared against the historical average for their seed. A positive Win Delta means the model expects this team to outperform their seed — they're better than the bracket says. Seed Delta shows the gap between their actual seed and their strength-based predicted seed within the region.
| Seed | Team | Win Delta | Seed Delta | Trend | R1 Opponent | R1 Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | +0.37 | +2 | ▲ +0.46 | #6 Louisville | 51.5% | |
| 11 | +0.30 | -1 | ▲ +0.18 | #6 North Carolina | 50% | |
| 10 | +0.23 | +0 | ▲ +0.15 | #7 Kentucky | 52.7% | |
| 12 | +0.15 | +2 | ▲ +0.12 | #5 Vanderbilt | 34.9% | |
| 12 | +0.11 | +1 | ▲ +0.29 | #5 St. John's | 31.9% | |
| 11 | +0.09 | -1 | ▶ -0.07 | #6 Tennessee | 37.1% | |
| 12 | +0.09 | +1 | ▼ -0.42 | #5 Texas Tech | 32% | |
| 13 | +0.07 | +0 | ▲ +0.15 | #4 Alabama | 25.8% |
Vulnerable Favorites ⓘ
The Vulnerability Index identifies favorites (seeds 1-8) most likely to underperform. A negative Win Delta means the model predicts fewer tournament wins than the historical average for that seed — they're overseeded. Seed Delta confirms this: a negative value means the model ranks them lower than their actual seed within the region.
| Seed | Team | Win Delta | Seed Delta | Trend | Luck | R1 Opponent | R1 Upset % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | -0.33 | -2 | ▶ -0.04 | +0.012 | #11 Virginia Commonwealth | 50% | |
| 6 | -0.32 | +1 | ▼ -0.38 | -0.009 | #11 South Florida | 51.5% | |
| 8 | -0.30 | -1 | ▼ -0.46 | +0.029 | #9 Utah St | 54.1% | |
| 4 | -0.29 | -2 | ▼ -0.45 | +0.055 | #13 California Baptist | 25.7% | |
| 3 | -0.27 | +0 | ▼ -0.45 | +0.073 | #14 Kennesaw St | 13.7% | |
| 7 | -0.25 | +0 | ▶ -0.06 | -0.024 | #10 Santa Clara | 52.7% | |
| 8 | -0.20 | +0 | ▼ -0.46 | +0.027 | #9 Saint Louis | 50.2% | |
| 4 | -0.19 | +0 | ▲ +0.11 | +0.098 | #13 Hawai'i | 20.7% |