The codes behind Busted Bracket
Adjusted Efficiency
Predicts point spreads using adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, normalized against league averages. Each team's ability to score and prevent scoring is measured on a per-possession basis for an apples-to-apples comparison. The number displayed after each predicted winner is the predicted point spread.
2026 BBI: 0.9
Predicts point spreads using adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, normalized against league averages. Each team's ability to score and prevent scoring is measured on a per-possession basis for an apples-to-apples comparison. The number displayed after each predicted winner is the predicted point spread.
2026 BBI: 0.9
Log5
Uses Bill James' Log5 formula to calculate each team's win probability based on their adjusted predicted win percentages. Unlike the spread-based models, Log5 answers the question "what percentage of the time would Team A beat Team B on a neutral court?" The percentage displayed after each predicted winner is the win probability.
2026 BBI: 2.1
Uses Bill James' Log5 formula to calculate each team's win probability based on their adjusted predicted win percentages. Unlike the spread-based models, Log5 answers the question "what percentage of the time would Team A beat Team B on a neutral court?" The percentage displayed after each predicted winner is the win probability.
2026 BBI: 2.1
Adjusted Four Factors
Predicts point spreads using Dean Oliver's Four Factors of basketball success — effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate, and free throw rate — each adjusted for opponent strength and league averages. The number displayed after each predicted winner is the predicted point spread.
2026 BBI: 7.8
Predicts point spreads using Dean Oliver's Four Factors of basketball success — effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate, and free throw rate — each adjusted for opponent strength and league averages. The number displayed after each predicted winner is the predicted point spread.
2026 BBI: 7.8