Tournament Probability ⓘ
"Probability" uses the Log5 method to list each team's odds of making it to a given round. The odds reflect team strength, competitive path, and consistency — the strongest team may not have the best championship odds if it faces tougher competition along the way. Updates after each game. Pre-tournament odds: here.
| Seed | Team | 2nd Rnd | 3rd Rnd ▼ | 4th Rnd | Final 4 | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | 99.2% | 94.4% | 89.4% | 81.6% | 68.4% | 55% |
| 1 | Michigan 🏆 | 97.2% | 86.1% | 69.3% | 54.8% | 17.8% | 10.5% |
| 1 | Duke | 97.1% | 84.1% | 70.7% | 56.2% | 40.6% | 14.5% |
| 1 | Florida | 97.4% | 77% | 54.4% | 33.5% | 16% | 3.9% |
| 2 | Purdue | 93.4% | 71.1% | 48% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 2 | Connecticut | 92% | 67.5% | 40.5% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| 2 | Iowa St | 91% | 64.7% | 38.6% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | Houston | 92.2% | 64.2% | 43% | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.4% |
| 3 | Illinois | 88.9% | 59.8% | 27.7% | 13% | 4.9% | 0.7% |
| 3 | Michigan St | 83.7% | 55.1% | 30.7% | 10.6% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| 3 | Virginia | 86.5% | 54.4% | 29.8% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 4 | Nebraska | 85.7% | 49.4% | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | Arkansas | 79.3% | 47.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | — |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 86.3% | 46.3% | 19.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | — |
| 4 | Alabama | 74.2% | 42.9% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 5 | St. John's | 68.1% | 42.8% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 74.5% | 39.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | — |
| 6 | Brigham Young | 67% | 38.1% | 16.7% | 2% | 0.5% | — |
| 5 | Texas Tech | 68% | 36.9% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Kansas | 74.3% | 36.3% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 1% | — |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | 65.1% | 34.4% | 13.1% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 6 | Tennessee | 62.9% | 29.6% | 13.8% | 3.7% | 0.3% | — |
| 7 | Saint Mary's | 70.6% | 27.8% | 14.7% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 7 | UCLA | 62.4% | 21.5% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | — |
| 7 | Miami | 68.1% | 21.5% | 9.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | — |
| 11 | South Florida | 51.5% | 21.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | — |
| 6 | Louisville | 48.5% | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | — |
| 11 | Virginia Commonwealth | 50% | 18.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | — |
| 6 | North Carolina | 50% | 18.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | — |
| 10 | Santa Clara | 52.7% | 18.3% | 7.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 7 | Kentucky | 47.3% | 15.3% | 5.5% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 12 | Northern Iowa | 31.9% | 14.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | — | — |
| 12 | McNeese | 34.9% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 1% | 0.1% | — |
| 11 | Texas | 33% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 11 | Miami (OH) | 37.1% | 13.2% | 4.6% | 0.9% | — | — |
| 8 | Clemson | 53.9% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | — |
| 12 | Akron | 32% | 11.8% | 2% | 0.7% | — | — |
| 9 | Iowa | 46.1% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 1% | 0.1% | — |
| 8 | Ohio St | 58% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 2% | 0.6% | — |
| 10 | Central Florida | 37.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 13 | Hofstra | 25.8% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 12 | High Point | 25.5% | 7.4% | 0.3% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Saint Louis | 50.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | — | — |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 29.4% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 8 | Georgia | 49.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | — | — |
| 13 | California Baptist | 25.7% | 6.5% | 0.6% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Missouri | 31.9% | 6.1% | 1.7% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Hawai'i | 20.7% | 6.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Texas Christian | 42% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | — | — |
| 14 | North Dakota St | 16.3% | 4.5% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Utah St | 54.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | — | — |
| 14 | Wright St | 13.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Troy | 14.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Villanova | 45.9% | 2.3% | 1% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 14 | Pennsylvania | 11.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Kennesaw St | 13.7% | 2.2% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tennessee St | 9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Furman | 8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Idaho | 7.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Queens University | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Howard | 2.8% | 0.6% | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | Siena | 2.9% | 0.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | Prairie View A&M | 2.6% | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | Long Island University | 0.8% | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |